Convergence of survey results and momentum (Sabong News)
Author
Diwa C. Guinigundo
Date
APRIL 21 2022
es, there is a good likelihood of yet another close vote and electoral protest between VP Leni and Marcos Jr. on May 9, 2022. This much was the bottom line of the recent analysis of GlobalSource Philippine country analyst Romeo Bernardo.
This is what the survey results would also suggest if one were to drill down the numbers. The so-called major surveys indicate a Marcos Jr. victory at the time the respondents were queried. But Bernardo also asked if we are missing something: “While March survey results in past elections tended to have good predictive value of election results, many acknowledge that the campaign momentum is on VP Robredo’s side. Will this time be different?”
It looks like it would be different this time.
In doing statistical analysis, there is such a thing as omitted-variable bias. We could be extra careful selecting the more relevant variables to explain the movement of say, inflation, output or given the election fever, the candidates’ performance in the polls. But if we fail to include a very important variable, we might be guilty of omitted-variable bias when such variable is a good determinant of the phenomenon we wish to explain. Or when such variable is also correlated with another explanatory variable like, for instance, the survey results. We end up short of sufficiently explaining the likely election results and imputing too much to the survey results, as if it is the supreme being in an electoral exercise.
For GlobalSource, and for many of us, it is VP Leni’s momentum. This is clearly seen in her significant gains in the surveys at the expense of the other candidates. True, she remains behind Marcos Jr.’s incredible lead but if her momentum continues, we should see his margin dwindling fast before the election.
VP Leni’s campaign has been covering more and wider areas of the archipelago. She brought her message of Tapat na Pamumuno that would lead to all boats rising with the tide, or Angat Buhay, in many parts of Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao. We are seeing pink all over.
There is admittedly little opportunity for VP Leni to fully explain her governance plan in those mammoth rallies but the people were more than inspired to see that her candidacy has birthed volunteerism, and is now in high gear. No one paid and ferried people to be there. Placards and posters went up in all sizes and styles. These are all contagious. We don’t see what others perceive as elitism, or self-righteous declarations during those rallies.
Marcos Jr.’s camp apparently is now attempting to organize rallies of similar proportion but at some point, the crowd ends up in violent intramurals. Videos in social media show cash distribution after the event, or bold entertainers strutting around the stage. The crowd has been sparse in comparison.
VP Leni has been squeezing every ounce of opportunity in presidential debates in offering her platform of government. She stands tall in these engagements because one, she has an excellent platform that she can discuss in great detail; and two, she has done what other candidates are still promising. With her platform and accomplishment, it has been easy for her to connect the two by a straight line of hope and possibility.
The leading candidate has neither of the two. It must be difficult for him to produce a straight line. Skipping debates is the ultimate solution to avoid discussing either platform or accomplishment, but it will also betray his disrespect of democratic processes. All up, Marcos Jr. should be prepared to see his survey results further eroded by his refusal to participate.
We expect Marcos Jr.’s further decline in the last few weeks of the campaign. He and his camp find it impossible to respond to the issue that he is not fit to be president because his family plundered the public treasury and now refuses to pay estate tax to the National Government. These charges are real and have been affirmed by no less than the Philippine Supreme Court.
Marcos Jr. cannot continue demanding proof that there were military brutalities during martial law. No less than the Philippine Congress through RA 10368 recognized that there were “victims of summary execution, torture, enforced or involuntary disappearance and other gross human rights violations” during martial law.
When this law was passed on Feb. 25, 2013, Marcos Jr. was an incumbent senator.
Survey results could undoubtedly provide us with some snapshots of the voting preference of their small samples. Yet, they should offer no badge of entitlement. There are other factors that probably have stronger predictive power of the May 9 election results.
If VP Leni’s pink crowds consolidate into a pink tsunami, and more volunteers bunch together to mount spirited house to house campaigns, and Marcos Jr. continues to excuse himself from public debates and defaults on the opportunity to explain his side of the story, as well as his own strategy on how to translate unity into pandemic management and economic recovery, the survey results and the unstoppable momentum should converge in favor of the last “man” standing. We would have an idea of our favorite color in Malacañang for the next six years.
And it is not red.
