The value of election polls (Sabong News)
Author
Vince Socco
Date
APRIL 11 2022
Are polls helpful for the electorate? Do they help a nation make a better choice? Or do they confuse voters?
As the Philippine elections approach – it’s the last four weeks till the May 9 polls – the value and reliability of political surveys are coming under increasing scrutiny and, some would say, attack. Candidates are questioning the integrity of surveys versus what they experience in their real world sorties. Indeed, it can be argued that a survey of about 2,000 or so respondents may not adequately capture the pulse of some 60 million voters. From the eyes of a candidate whose rallies are attended by two or three or 10 or 10,000 times more people, it is entirely plausible to have a disconnect.
In most every country, electoral polls are ubiquitous. There is no reason it should be any different for Philippines. After all, the Supreme Court has already ruled that surveys are protected by free speech. So there.
I suppose, however, that it is worth understanding what value polls bring to the exercise of our right to vote. Why are polls so common during elections? There are two points of view, in my mind. One is from the candidate and the other from the electorate.
From the candidate’s view, polls are a critical tool in mapping out their campaign strategy. It identifies places that they are running strong and others where they need to exert extra effort. It also identifies which constituencies and sectors are rallying for or against them. Polls inform parties and candidates about which issues matter or not at all. Without surveys, it is difficult to imagine running an intelligent, efficient and effective candidacy.
Surveys used for campaign planning, I imagine, should be commissioned. This is because strategists are purpose-driven.
However, commissioning a survey can be a very expensive proposition. I recall hearing from a pollster who was being interviewed that a poll of about 2,000 respondents can cost up to P5,000,000. It is definitely not for the faint-hearted or for those without deep pockets. Candidates with lesser funds can depend on results of the non-commissioned kind.
From the electorate’s view, on the other hand, the value of a survey becomes less compelling. My litmus test would be: if survey results were not available to the general public, would we be less equipped or informed as we head to the polls? Do surveys help us get to know candidates better? The bottom line, I imagine, is how survey results impact on our choice of candidates.
In my opinion, surveys are simply an indication of which candidates are leading; it informs us of the progress of the electoral race. What the polls are not, however, are an indication of who is the “better” candidate. Polls are not a performance evaluation. It can be argued that the leaders in the race enjoy popular support and, therefore, are the better choice. That is a fair point but only if “popularity” is, in fact, a good enough reason for you to cast your vote in their favor.
In the USA or other countries with a strong political party system, the votes usually gravitate around issues that are relevant to the times or the future of the nation. It is a race of which party is better poised to lead the country; the chosen candidates represent the party ideals. That is also why the President and Vice President come from the same party – precisely because it is a vote for the party and the ideals they stand for.
In the Philippines, we have a multi-party system that is rooted less in ideals than political alliances. At times, the personality – and popularity – of the candidate overshadows the party platform. This becomes more evident when we see how parties and candidates easily switch sides. One party, for example, announced that it was switching its support for its standard-bearer because he did not appear to be as winnable as the other candidate.
Surveys that track the progress of the electoral race should be non-commissioned in order to have any integrity as being non-partisan. But, as I mentioned, it is an expensive undertaking. So, we could ask what’s in it for the survey companies? I suppose they sell the results to interested parties in order to recover the cost or, even better, make money from it. I doubt seriously that any survey company would spend all that money for the sake of being able to call out potential winners. Maybe they do it in the name of public service or to promote their research capabilities.
Ultimately, polls are meant to give the electorate a snapshot of where the elections are going. It is much like the leader board in some sports events. The final winners of the elections, though, are not determined by surveys. We should not fall prey to the bandwagon effect. We vote according to our conscience and choice of the future we desire for ourselves and those who will come after us.
For comments:
