Making crowd estimates (Sabong News)
Author
Pinky Concha-Colmenares
Date
APRIL 06 2022
Today, making crowd estimates has become a sensitive issue. If you want to become an overnight sensation in social media, make a fearless estimate of the crowd in a political rally of any candidate running for president. It will be a number that will make your site an instant hit and overflow with benign to serious criticisms and praises.
During the days I covered rallies, putting a crowd estimate was a must in our stories, and that figure would come from the police and the event organizer. I found that the figures never were the same, that was expected, and our editors did not question us on that.
If the activity organizer was not in friendly terms with the administration, the number would be low. If it was a religious event, the number would be quite impressive, it would raise eyebrows of diligent editors who will ask how such a number of people got to that venue. If it is initiated by the administration, police authorities were generous with the crowd estimate. But journalists would give their own estimates anyway.
Recently, crowd estimates have become controversial figures. I’ve read comments on Facebook that show how colleagues, friends, relatives –even siblings –argue over a crowd estimate in a political rally. As elections day come nearer, supporters of candidates are becoming intensely passionate in showing their political colors and stand by the figures given by their political camps.
It’s also amusing how each side of the political coin rallies to support or attack a crowd estimate with gimmicks. A few sound like talk among very drunk friends where bragging is the order of the conversation. You know what I mean.
There are many crowd estimate apps available. A Google search will lead you to them, and another will lead to articles written about past events that had questionable crowd estimates that were not disputed anyway.
First, all the sites agree that crowd estimates are important. The figures are needed to confirm the strength of the issue which brought that many people in one place. The crowd estimate will help convince others to join the bandwagon, or the administration to do something to solve a situation.
The most common way to do a crowd estimate is called “Jacob’s Method.” It divides the area occupied by a crowd into sections, determines an average number of people in each section, then multiplies the number of sections occupied.
The method estimates the number through the density of the crowd, which can be difficult if the crowd is moving, as in a parade, or the crowd has spread to nearby streets.
The process of estimating begins with the question – how many square feet does a person need? Experts say “between six to 10 feet.” A loose crowd — one in which each person is about an arm’s length away from their nearest neighbor — requires 10 square feet (about one square meter) per person. A more tightly-packed crowd fills closer to five square feet (about half a meter) per person.
Crowd density can be calculated in the number of people per square meter. “Younger, smaller people occupy less space than older and larger people. But as a rule, things get uncomfortable once you reach five people per square meter.” But crowd estimators also have to consider that crowd density is not consistent throughout the crowd as people nearer to the stage stand closer to each other.
There is no exact number to a crowd estimate because it is what it is – an estimate. But for those who demand closer to exact numbers, they can compare crowd photos shared in social media against the crowd scene, and determine the density for each section. They can also examine photos from drones, map-based imagery and even public transportation data. Or, an organizer can control the entrance points where they can have a people-counter key in the figures.
Authorities have to put some attention on making crowd estimates, not only for the benefit of voters, but for efficient crowd control. After the elections, we will need information to direct crowd control. Afterall, Covid is still here.
